I PREDICT THE DEMOCRATS WILL KEEP THE SENATE…

Most of the so-called political experts I hear these days seem pretty confident in predicting that come this November ‘Dingy Harry’ Reid will no longer be the Senate majority leader. And we’re told the basis for their predictions is…history. They say that the midterm elections nearly ‘always’ go against the president’s party and together with such things as Obamacare and the continuing scandals, Republicans are sure to take control of the Senate. But from layman’s point of view there are more than a few reasons that I just don’t see that happening. Frankly I don’t even see them coming close.

Now the basis for my own prediction is the fact that I just don’t think you can any longer rely on the history of elections past. I say that because, the events of just the last five or six years, this is no longer the country that it once was, which, I think, eliminates the ability to use past elections to predict future elections. For example, we recently went over having 11 Million people now on disability. And we also now have 50 Million people on food stamps and a100 Million people now on some form of government assistance. And another thing is that Barry’s ‘Blame Bush’ strategy continues to work.

Despite the fact that Barry has put their children and grand children into debt up to their eyeballs, many Americans still blame Bush for the sad state of our economy. And for whatever bizarre reason they have chosen to ignore what is going on right before their eyes in favor of believing Barry when he tells them that it’s all Bush’s fault. Everyone likes to point to the housing crash that occurred back in 2008, which I think you can say ushered in the Barry presidency, as also being Bush’s fault. But the truth of the matter is that it was actually engineered by Democrats going all the way back to Jimmy Carter.

What’s likely to be the determining factor come this November is the number of Barry’s newly minted government dependents will turnout to make sure that they do all that they can to make sure the gravy train that they are now on, remains fully on the tracks. And they will see their best chance of ensuring that happens by making sure to vote for whatever Democrat is in the race. What’s good for the country will never even enter their little pea brains, because it’s what best for them that will be the determining factor when deciding for whom to vote. That’s what Barry & Co. has now reduced us to.

And just one note on immigration. I fail to understand why the Republicans seem to be so determined in their efforts to create millions more Democrat voters by passing amnesty. And if they do choose to do so before this November’s election I feel that I can safely guarantee that they will come nowhere near to winning the Senate and may even lose some seats in the House. Because by passing amnesty they will once again make it obvious that there is simply little difference between them and the Democrats. And if there is no difference, where’s the incentive for me, or anyone else, to vote Republican?

TOO BAD, SO SAD…DEMOCRATS HAVE EVEN LESS REASON TO BE OPTIMISTIC…

So it would seem that the electoral prospects for Democrats, at least as far as they may be related to this November’s midterm elections, continue to be more than a bit on the gloomy side. Because even after taking into consideration the outright hostility the majority of voters feel toward Obamacare, according to Andrew Kohut, founding director of the Pew Research Center, Democrat chances at electoral success are further hampered by the fact that the party is now losing ground not only among whites, but also those under 34, and independent voters.

Oddly enough there are surveys which are said to show that the public actually thinks that Republicans have fewer solutions when it comes to healthcare, than do the Democrats, and Republicans somehow manage only a four-point lead on handling the economy. Moreover, the Republican Party is said to have a 59 percent unfavorable rating, and the Tea Party is almost twice as unpopular today as it was in 2010. Nevertheless, polls still show the GOP stands a better chance of coming out ahead in the midterm elections, at least according to Mr. Kohut.

While Republican voters are more enthusiastic about their party and exhibit a higher voter participation rate, Democrats, who are said to possess a 48 percent unfavorable rating, are losing support among some of their key demographic groups. These days we’re told that Independent voters tend to lean Republican by 44 percent to 38 percent. And even though Barry "Almighty" failed to carry the independent vote in the 2012 presidential elections most so-called Independents that I know tend to lean more so to the left and to the right.

And it’s according to Mr. Kohut that about 80 percent of the midterm electorate is expected to be white. Democrats trail Republicans in white support 53 percent to 38 percent. And apparently Democrats are also losing backing among millennials. Identification with the Democrats now stands at 50 percent, which is down from 58 percent in 2009. Barry's unpopularity "is probably the greatest problem for Democrats this year," Kohut says. With a 44 percent approval rating, his standing could prove more than a hindrance to Democrat candidates.

All that said, I continue to be more than just a bit baffled as to why it is that there is so much ill will directed to those of us in the Tea Party. Unless of course, people actually believe all of the drivel about how we are supposed to all be nothing more than just a bunch of racists. I guess I just don’t understand why it is that because we choose to believe in our Constitution and are in favor of lower taxes as well as smaller, much smaller, government, we’re seen as being the villains and the reason the country is in such piss poor shape. But that’s far from being our fault.

I think we can all agree on how it’s a fact that a majority of those who make up the American electorate are far from being the sharpest knife in just about anyone’s drawer. But that’s the way the Democrats like things. Because an ignorant and uninformed voter is far more likely to march out to the polls and vote for any Democrat in any election. To me it only makes sense that if you are truly interested in the survival of your country, that one would want to join ranks with those who identify themselves with the Tea Party and the advancing of those shared ideals and goals.

It would seem to that continuing to teaming up with the Democrats produces nothing more than a losing proposition for all concerned, except, of course, for the Democrat politicians. But far too many of us see it as being somehow advantageous to continue that relationship if for no other reason than because it keeps the freebies coming our way. Too many folks fail to realize that at some point the gravy train, just like Obamacare, is going to come fully off the tracks. And then what? Doesn’t it make more sense to rely on oneself and not on the government?

IN LOOKING AHEAD TO 2014…

As much as I would love nothing better than to see ‘Dingy Harry’ Reid demoted from his current position as leader in the Senate, I’m not about to start getting my hopes up. The election is still a very long way away, politically speaking. But, my hesitance notwithstanding, according to a new national poll it would at least appear at this date in time, that the Democrats have apparently lost whatever advantage they may have had, with Republicans now having a slight edge in the battle for control of Congress.

A CNN/ORC International survey released Thursday also indicates that it’s Barry himself who may be dragging down Democratic congressional candidates. It was only two months ago that the Democrats held a 50%-42% advantage among registered voters in a generic ballot, which asked respondents to choose between a Democrat or Republican in their congressional district without identifying the candidates. So that just goes to show you that political momentum can change pretty quickly.

But having said that, it’s rather obvious that, at least for time being, the Democratic lead has now pretty much evaporated. It was also a CNN poll a month ago that, indicated then, the GOP holding a 49%-47% lead. And now this new survey, conducted in mid-December, indicates Republicans with a 49%-44% edge over the Democrats. The 13-point swing follows a political uproar over Obamacare, including the botched website rollout and controversy over insurance policy cancelations due to the new health law.

"Virtually all the movement toward the GOP has come among men," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Fifty-four percent of female voters chose the Democratic candidate in October; 53% pick the Dem now. But among male voters, support for Democratic candidates has gone from 46% in October to just 35% now." Republicans have a 17-seat advantage in the House and Democrats hold a 55-45 majority in the Senate. But these poll results are a long way from predicting what will happen next November.

"There is just under a year to go before any votes are actually cast and the 'generic ballot' question is not necessarily a good predictor of the actual outcome of 435 separate elections," Holland cautioned. "A year before the 2010 midterms, for example, the Democrats held a 6-point lead on the generic ballot but the GOP wound up regaining control of the House in that election cycle, thanks to an historic 63-seat pickup," he added. And there is a lack of voter enthusiasm that must also be taken into consideration.

Because it’s also according to this latest poll, that only three in 10 registered voters now say that they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress next year, compared to more than four in 10 who felt that way in late 2009. And 43% say they're not enthusiastic about voting, up from 25% who felt that way four years ago. Thirty-six percent of Republicans say they're extremely or very enthusiastic about voting. That number drops to 22% among Democrats.

Another GOP advantage would be Barry "Almighty’s" current standing with the public: 55% of registered voters say that they are more likely to vote for a congressional candidate who opposes the President than one who supports him and four in 10 say they are likely to vote for a candidate who supports Obama. "Those kind of numbers spelled early trouble for the Democrats before the 1994 and 2010 midterms, and for the GOP before the 2006 elections," Holland said.

So while I think we can very safely say that this poll, like the majority of all polls, should be taken with a grain of salt, it does, to a certain degree, also offer some encouragement to those who would like nothing less than to alter the current makeup of the Senate. Granted, my confidence in Mitch McConnell, should he come to find himself in charge of a GOP majority in the Senate, is nowhere near where it ought to be. I’d feel much better about things if it were a Ted Cruz or Rand Paul who would be in that position.

But, as they say, beggars can’t be choosers, and we must, as always, play the hand which we are dealt. And what that means is, is that if we are in fact fortunate enough to acquire a Senate majority, then it most likely will be McConnell who we will then be forced into dealing with. But even that would be better that having to deal with ‘Dingy Harry’ Reid. But, as I have said, next November is still a very long way away and there remains plenty of time for the Republicans to, once again, shoot themselves in both feet.