As much as I would love nothing better than to see ‘Dingy Harry’ Reid demoted from his current position as leader in the Senate, I’m not about to start getting my hopes up. The election is still a very long way away, politically speaking. But, my hesitance notwithstanding, according to a new national poll it would at least appear at this date in time, that the Democrats have apparently lost whatever advantage they may have had, with Republicans now having a slight edge in the battle for control of Congress.
A CNN/ORC International survey released Thursday also indicates that it’s Barry himself who may be dragging down Democratic congressional candidates. It was only two months ago that the Democrats held a 50%-42% advantage among registered voters in a generic ballot, which asked respondents to choose between a Democrat or Republican in their congressional district without identifying the candidates. So that just goes to show you that political momentum can change pretty quickly.
But having said that, it’s rather obvious that, at least for time being, the Democratic lead has now pretty much evaporated. It was also a CNN poll a month ago that, indicated then, the GOP holding a 49%-47% lead. And now this new survey, conducted in mid-December, indicates Republicans with a 49%-44% edge over the Democrats. The 13-point swing follows a political uproar over Obamacare, including the botched website rollout and controversy over insurance policy cancelations due to the new health law.
"Virtually all the movement toward the GOP has come among men," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Fifty-four percent of female voters chose the Democratic candidate in October; 53% pick the Dem now. But among male voters, support for Democratic candidates has gone from 46% in October to just 35% now." Republicans have a 17-seat advantage in the House and Democrats hold a 55-45 majority in the Senate. But these poll results are a long way from predicting what will happen next November.
"There is just under a year to go before any votes are actually cast and the 'generic ballot' question is not necessarily a good predictor of the actual outcome of 435 separate elections," Holland cautioned. "A year before the 2010 midterms, for example, the Democrats held a 6-point lead on the generic ballot but the GOP wound up regaining control of the House in that election cycle, thanks to an historic 63-seat pickup," he added. And there is a lack of voter enthusiasm that must also be taken into consideration.
Because it’s also according to this latest poll, that only three in 10 registered voters now say that they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress next year, compared to more than four in 10 who felt that way in late 2009. And 43% say they're not enthusiastic about voting, up from 25% who felt that way four years ago. Thirty-six percent of Republicans say they're extremely or very enthusiastic about voting. That number drops to 22% among Democrats.
Another GOP advantage would be Barry "Almighty’s" current standing with the public: 55% of registered voters say that they are more likely to vote for a congressional candidate who opposes the President than one who supports him and four in 10 say they are likely to vote for a candidate who supports Obama. "Those kind of numbers spelled early trouble for the Democrats before the 1994 and 2010 midterms, and for the GOP before the 2006 elections," Holland said.
So while I think we can very safely say that this poll, like the majority of all polls, should be taken with a grain of salt, it does, to a certain degree, also offer some encouragement to those who would like nothing less than to alter the current makeup of the Senate. Granted, my confidence in Mitch McConnell, should he come to find himself in charge of a GOP majority in the Senate, is nowhere near where it ought to be. I’d feel much better about things if it were a Ted Cruz or Rand Paul who would be in that position.
But, as they say, beggars can’t be choosers, and we must, as always, play the hand which we are dealt. And what that means is, is that if we are in fact fortunate enough to acquire a Senate majority, then it most likely will be McConnell who we will then be forced into dealing with. But even that would be better that having to deal with ‘Dingy Harry’ Reid. But, as I have said, next November is still a very long way away and there remains plenty of time for the Republicans to, once again, shoot themselves in both feet.
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