I tend not to spend much time speculating about polls, especially those that at least ‘appear’ to be favorable to those on my side. But at the risk of jinxing things I felt it necessary to spend a few minutes regarding some new ‘Morning Consult’ polls that apparently show the Democrats ‘could be’ in serious trouble in Senate races all across the country. Because it’s at this particular moment that it appears Republicans now have serious leads in West Virginia where incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin trails by 14 points, in North Dakota where incumbent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp trails by 8, and in Indiana where incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly trails by 5.
Also Democrats also seem to be in a bit of trouble
in Missouri, where incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill trails by 5, in Montana
where incumbent Democrat Jon Tester trails by 5, in Florida where incumbent
Democrat Bill Nelson is locked in a near-deadlock with Rick Scott, and in Pennsylvania
and Ohio where incumbent Democrats Bill Casey and Sherrod Brown are leading by
less than two points each, plus Virginia, where Timmy Kaine leads by just 3 on
the generic ballot. So the best-case
scenario has the Republicans actually winning up to nine additional Senate
seats. But November is still a very long
way away and there is much that can happen.
The polls also ‘appear’ less than favorable for the
Democrats in the House where the RealClearPolitics poll average for the generic
ballot has Democrats up 6.7%, but the polls are all over the place. The Economist/YouGov has Democrats with a
3-point lead, Quinnipiac has Democrats with an 8-point lead, as does Monmouth. The best available data seems to suggest that
Democrats are heavy favorites to take the House, but face a seriously uphill
battle to take the Senate from Republicans. This is a rarity in modern politics; the last
time a president’s party picked up seats in the Senate but lost seats in the House
was Ronald Reagan back in 1982.
And it was in 1970 that Richard Nixon’s Republicans
lost 12 seats in the House but picked up two seats in the Senate. And it was in 1962 that Kennedy’s Democrats
lost four House seats but gained three Senate seats. Today, Republicans are
expected to lose dozens of House seats but could simultaneously pick up a
half-dozen Senate seats. Given our
wildly divisive politics, this isn’t particularly shocking. But it is a sign that our national divisions
are serious and regional — that politics can’t easily be nationalized. And that
means that President Trump still has a path in 2020 to victory, if he can eke
out wins in the same states he did in 2016.
One thing that I would like to think that the
Republicans may have in their favor is a Democrat platform that has as its
major planks things like reparations and the ‘promise’ of gutting much of our
First and Second Amendment rights. And
then there’s the Democrat Party’s intense hatred of all white people especially
those who reside in ‘Red’ states. To me
that would seem to be a losing platform.
And also, instead of the usual relatively muted response to a
presidential defeat that they usually display, they lost their freaking minds
and have therefore put conservatives on the defense instead of lulling them
into an apathetic stupor.
I do kind of like the way the election is shaping
up. We have prosperity, a level of which
that hasn’t been seen for decades, a possible big triumph over North Korea, and
growing black support, a mainstay of the Democrats has seen a nearly 10 point
erosion in just this week as people wake up to the idea that being employed and
having control of your life is better than being dependent on Democrat
politicians on the welfare plantation. If
Trump or the Republicans pick up another few points in approval I think both
the Senate and the House can be held. With
a solid control of Congress Trump can proceed with making America great again.
While we know Paul Ryan will not be returning, those
now being mentioned most prominently as candidates for his replacement would
bring about little change. What I think would
go a very long way in helping the Republicans maintain control of the House is Rep.
Jim Jordan being selected as Ryan’s successor.
If voters knew going in that Jordan would be the next Speaker it just might
be what the doctor ordered as far as convincing people to give the Republicans one
more shot at being the majority party.
And over in the Senate, Mitch McConnell has got to go. He has been nothing but an abject failure as
the majority leader in the Senate.
And you wouldn’t think the antics of congressional Democrats over the course of the last two years would convince enough voters that they deserve being in charge of Congress. Time and again they have continually demonstrated that they have absolutely no interest in helping working class Americans. They are all about getting power, but when they get it, do nothing positive with it. A perfect example of that would be the first two years of Barry’s first term when all they did was to force ‘passage’ of Obamacare, which hasn't stopped costing us money and unraveling since day one. Do we really want to go down that road again?
No comments:
Post a Comment